Stock Market Technical Analysis for July 25, 2019

Stock Market Technical Analysis for July 25, 2019



hi this is Randy Finney with the right side of the chart and this is a closing mark a wrap for Thursday July 25th 2019 I debated whether or not to even do one we didn't have any significant developments once again today but we had a lot of big reports after the bell I'm gonna comment on those in a second we'll take a look at the futures and then more importantly to get this out what levels to watch going forward you know the the we had a down day in fact that Nasdaq 100 was down kukuku was down 1% in the broad market the SP was down a half a percent but again it didn't do anything technically significant there were little there are these little trades to be made that's where I said you know if any money to be made in the market it's sort of like squeezing water from a rock you know traders traders flourish on volatility swing traders do the VIX now is that you know back to the low end of its range volatility is compressed these little small candles and the best you can do is get it look at these little short-term trend lines I'm here on a 60-minute chart as I showed you this one yesterday you have the downtrend line on the spy you get a breakout we came back tested the breakout point had an uptrend so there was a swing trade there and then you had the uptrend line here and then that broke today so there was a trade to be made there same story on QQQ you broke that minor uptrend line that I highlighted and you know a little a little move down and again if you're trading futures or you're leveraging up and you're day trading or actively swing trading you can make a little bit but I you know I continue to maintain the money right Ness where for example let's look at this you know this morning in the charts I'm watching for members I listed I mentioned several things that I was watching look for trading ops and silver was one of those that silver was back testing it broke down below this bullish falling wedge you know I'd been long and you know bullish on silver this whole run-up talking about a silver poised to play a game of catch-up to gold and that's exactly what happens so silver is greatly outperformed and the silver miners but you know as an active trader mentioned they closed out my silver long and I reversed this I took a short trade and just from where it was posted here today that point at 16 620 dropped down to my first target as I said 1330 five hit they're reversed we say cover a little bit below above the actual resistance levels and that was good for each each single contract in that side was good for $1400 from that alone and then I went on we hit that level you know good time to reverse yeah it was a quick 1.7 percent gain and I played a bounce up there and then this is how it looked and got out of that knee right near the top as I mentioned doing the video today I was I just trailed my stops up and that took me out right and right near the high so you know that you take that 1% add on another 1.7 add on another I don't know half a percent or more add to that so you know that that's where the trading ops are you don't see the market going down 1.7% and then reversing right on cue in a single day so you know this day trade alone he has been more profitable than most of the you know day trades on the market see even that you know rty IWM trade yesterday but as we you know the public videos we stick to the broad market covered so this is what this is what we're looking at now this is the 60-minute chart of QQQ through the end of the day we're gonna look at the futures here in a second and I'll comment on that nothing's changed I have if you've haven't watched a recent videos just watch one of the recent updates where I covered the daily and longer-term charts so again I could sit here and look at these all day long and tell you that although we drop 1% and Q key Q and a half more sense by absolutely nothing's changed on the charts so let's look at the futures try to gauge where what levels to watch and where we might be going from here all right so here's NQ and all the lines zoomed in this is a 60 minute chart of the Nasdaq 100 futures you know and yesterday's update I mentioned you know we just continue to wedge higher the divergence continues to extend which still leads me to believe that you know an impending trend change meaning a correction is likely as long as those divergences are still there and they they still very much are so the trade you know from there we had that divergent high and again there was that minor trend line break I just showed you before in QQQ and we fell right to that 1720 support it's the same level it's spent on this chart for a while so you can trade off these levels and you can see what the futures are doing at and after hours right now we had three of the big four companies reacting positive to earnings I'll get to those in a second one of those the biggest one being Amazon down so that's kind of the three if so far led to a pop we had an initial leg down and you can see capped right at the resistance line again these were all the levels covered yesterday so here's how you can actively trade now what the takeaway is if you're not a very active trader this is our pretty big support you can see all the reactions on here so far a lot of reactions here reactions here when we broke it we didn't limp down we moved very impulsive that impulsive selling helps to validate the importance of that level we gained it again off with an impulsive break through it but once we broke it again boom and impulsive move down gained it here tested tested tested tested so it's a level it's been traded through but the way it was traded through and all the other reactions tell me that that's a pretty pretty big level to watch right now so 7920 goes with the conviction then that should open the door up for I'll probably give us what that finally a big move down now that we've had some of the major components of the nasdaq-100 reporting we still have Apple coming up next week so it's not all over but at least now we have Microsoft Amazon alphabet Facebook so we have for the five things are out of the way and one one left to go anyways those are the levels to watch look at es real quick for you es traders there's this comparable trendline there's the most recent divergent hi kind of impulsive somewhat impulsive selling so far off that high but again we're kind of living in this little world of these small ranges it looks like a lot but it's really just kind of more noise if you will within this recent trading range right here and what what spy or es in this case the S&P 500 futures need to do to give us a decent sell signal is to break the bottom of that recent range really this whole these this will call this a support zone right here this level between 29 74 and 29 55 so I think that needs to go to really get the selling going and start to see that good old some kind of correction mode that we haven't seen for quite a while now rty that I should cover that too since I talked yesterday that was my focus we had the small caps they overshot that 1582 target and on what I refer to I called a momentum fueled overshoot when you have a near vertical trajectory you know that tremendous velocity momentum going in to a resistance level even if that level is going to prove to act as resistance beetle stopping point you're going to overshoot it I mean algae always used as a pitcher throwing a 92 mile an hour fastball it's gonna hit the catcher's glove and it's not going to stop their glove is gonna snap back and then come back forward to the point that the ball hit the glove that sets what a momentum field overshoot is with a in trading so and so the target was hit and then we actually came back I stepped in I tried to catch I thought we'd get a bounce trade I had a short going in here to reverse all 1573 the reaction was very minor so I got stopped out on that one and then I just let it go after that point but either way you can see that that's it you know these are just quick short term trading ops and you got to hit them while you can got to get in get out that was that nice clean bullish falling wedge breakout and so the markets are acting well to the technicals at least at least IWM lately and again on a very short-term time frame so are the large caps but it's just have to be a very active trader going for small profits get in get out that's what that's all this markets given anybody lately and so now idea IWM or RT y the small cap ETF is smack back into the middle of this trading range as it's been in for a while so saying I really don't have much of an opinion on where it goes from here but I'd still think that you know in the coming weeks here we're gonna see a pretty good correction in the broad market and if so we just need to get those sell signals we need to see those support levels broke and we need to see some big red candles on the daily not these little tiny candles some big red candles that smash through support and some impulsive selling otherwise we're just you know continue to be locked in these summer doldrums and that's that now let's just look at what's going on in after-hours okay let's see I'm you know doing this on a big 32 inch monitor I have to go down I don't have more charts and I can cover on these YouTube videos but here's a mosaic a streaming chart so I can move this thing down here yeah I can capture most of our missing NQ right now but here's here's what I wanted to focus on it's got a lot of charts on this page right here here's Amazon this is by far remember Amazon I told you that the four big components of the nasdaq-100 reporting today which were Amazon alphabet Intel and Starbucks they collectively make up about 20 to 23 percent of the returns of the nasdaq-100 however Amazon makes up around 10 percent or so so towards other so what's going on is people liked what they heard so far from Starbucks they liked what they heard on that's Expedia it's another one reporting they like what they heard on the alphabet and they liked what they heard on Intel so far now I want to say this and I say this every time there's an FOMC announcement but more importantly when there's earnings there's two components to an earnings report there is the earnings report what they made you know what they're with their profits losses earnings per share every everything that happened last quarter then there's the conference call with most companies most will give guidance and then expand and I can't tell you how many times I've seen a stock go one way let's say up only to come down and sell off very hard later in the day after our session or the next day so I wanted to point that out that I don't take a whole lot into what happens it's it's same thing with the FOMC announcement it's not the initial reaction that matters it's the lasting reaction wait till the conference calls out of the way and then most importantly wait to sway to the the big players step on the field tomorrow the starters at 9:30 that's when the institutions come out to play they can't move in the after hour session it's very difficult there's not a liquidity it's much harder so for the most part you know there's always exceptions you'll you'll see this is a lot of retail traders playing around and you know maybe some smaller institutions but the big ones come out tomorrow so that's that and futures well here it is over here let me slide this over and there's another down here in the corner right right-hand corner you can see what the Nasdaq futures are doing NQ and so far you know knee jerk down knee jerk up could go either way and again I'm not gonna read too much and this is all just noise right now let the conference calls get out there and the guidance and then let them most importantly let the market absorb everything that's been said because that takes a while to really get processed and absorb so I gave you levels to watch tomorrow what's and just to recap on the you know the daily charts if you don't want to get tied up in the world of the 60-minute charts and I get that and you know not everybody is an active trader this is a kind of a big level here on spy about 294 we had the previous highs back here from 2018 before the big drop we came up tested him again failed came back up finally broke out and so right now we have this little area what I call a a very lackluster breakout and the reason again that I believe it will fail a couple reasons breakouts that occur on below average volume have a much higher rate of failing you can see volume tapering off it's simply a sign of non-confirmation it's not a guarantee that that breakout can't stick so I'm low volume breakouts do stick however those on that don't occur on one and a half times or better average volume tend to have a higher rate of failing and then the other thing of course is the breakouts that occur with negative divergence or new highs that occur with negative divergence just like this new high all-time high at the time here and spy those that occur with both negative divergence and overbought tend to have a much higher failure rate as well so nothing has changed I'm an intermediate longer-term outlook that's that that we just need to kind of get going we need to get some sell signals and of course you know like I said a solid break below 294 will certainly help that's not a be-all end-all as would a full move back down below 190 146 that's a little bit closer on QQQ again we're here on the daily chart you can see QQQ had you know double top and divergent hi there again divergent hi divergent hi divergent hi and you know we know what happened the last time we had divergent highs I don't see why any any reason why this will be any different we just need to get some cell signals here and again so look for a break of that 19150 ish level that will be a move back below the recent highs and give us a failed breakout as well especially if you get it with spy next level to watch you know those highs back from 2018 wherever they come in around 181 189 or so that would certainly help as well and then if that starts app and I'll turn my focus back to the weekly chart which again nothing's changed there recently because we've just kind of been compressing here so that's it right now you know futures are up not up I'm sorry they still haven't regained all the losses they had earlier today they've had a little pop since those companies reported but again a lot can and probably will happen between now and tomorrow so we'll just we'll pick this up and I will definitely do a weekly closing market wrap tomorrow at the end of the day this has been Randy Finney with right side of the chart hope you enjoyed it

10 thoughts on “Stock Market Technical Analysis for July 25, 2019”

  1. Randy great thanks for your analysis you post . very valuable. One thing would be nice though – if you laid down major bull/bear cases. And if they dont work out then actually acknowledge it and formulate a new one – not in divergence with that what actually happened. I remember you posted once a "bear case invalidated" if spy reclaimed and held ATH. so we did. Yet seems nothing changed about the bearish tone. levels keep moving up yet scenario every time is for bear move .

  2. i have a question: 1) earning look good, 2) US data are good (so far), 3) S&P going up (for now together with NAS100) … SO why would FED cut rate? and why rumors say by maybe 50 basis points? IS FOMC influence by other banks (AUD, NZD, EUR, JPY, …)? Looking at just US market, it does not make sense to me … (PS: genuine question)

  3. don't touch this market till after the fed next week, we are very extended but this is Trump's market, he loves to pump it up and Powell is his puppet!!!!

  4. That move in the Russell 2K futures is about the most stupid looking thing you will ever see on a chart. Rocket straight up one day, and tank right back down the next. It's an example of how the next bear market will be, an absolute crash. That's just how the market works now, trend trading is dead, it's all about mindlessly chasing momentum spikes.

  5. Day trading is VERY much a loser's game. BEWARE! YOU WILL LOSE YOUR ACCOUNT if you're not of Randy's calibre.

  6. Thank you Randy for your awesome analysis.. You are the most accurate analyst that I can find.. Your experience really shows on your accuracy..- Luciano

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